As 2022 continues to unfold, here are eight activities that may shape Nigeria’s security coming weeks, according to a report published by Beacon Consulting.
1. Attack on Defenceless Communities
The dislodgement of gunmen from bases and camps due to the ongoing interdiction operations by the security forces in North Central and North West Nigeria will lead to further unwarranted one-off bestial attacks against defenceless communities,
2. Political violence
Political violence localized to political events and gatherings will continue as preparations continue for off-cycle elections and the party congresses of the ruling party.
3. Kidnap for ransom may rise
Criminal activities including kidnap for ransom, violent and petty crimes as well as home invasions are likely to continue in the short and medium terms due to the deteriorating economic circumstances of the country and rising inflation,
4. Continued Boko Haram attacks
A continuation of non-state actors’ activities challenging the supremacy of the state’s monopoly of force and sustenance of their attacks on communities including kidnap for ransom and raids. This, in turn, will push communities to evolve self-help initiatives including protests, where they block access routes and arm themselves.
5. Political rancour
The deteriorating security situation will continue to fuel political rancour and the exchange between the ruling party and its members and between it and opposition parties.
6. Mass protests
Social upheaval especially protests by civil society organisations and political groups hiding behind civil activists will intensify as a major driver of security challenges as the effect of the economic downturn forces government at the Federal and State levels to take measures to manage these impacts.
7. Daring attacks from ISWAP following
In the North East, the non-state actors waging a terror war and the ongoing military operation Hadin Kai will continue the armed conflict. The restructuring and consolidation of ISWAP and its reduced membership will translate into bolder attacks and other activities of the group. This will mean a continuation of armed attacks and counter attacks as well as illegal checkpoints mounted along major travel routes particularly in Borno state but in the border towns of Yobe and Adamawa states.
8. The trend in criminal activities in especially South-West Nigeria, where we recorded the highest quarterly and month-to-month increase, is evolving and requires robust community-based prevention and law enforcement measures.