By Gift Wada
A new report has revealed a strategic expansion of the activities of the terrorist group, Islamic State of West Africa Province (ISWAP) beyond Northeast region, the epicentre of its attacks.
The report titled Nigeria Security Report” and released by Beacon Consulting, a security risk management and intelligence consulting company, also revealed that violent attacks, abductions and fatalities tally plateaued in September compared to August 2022, despite the momentum of security forces’ operations. Over 800 persons were killed last month.
According to the report, there were 528 incidents perpetrated by terrorists, bandits, kidnappers among others that resulted in 861 fatalities, 379 abductions across 185 Local Government Areas in 36 states and the Federal Capital Territory, Abuja.
The report noted that, more than previously, ISWAP is claiming responsibility for attacks outside its traditional areas of operation to include, Borno, Adamawa and Yobe; suggesting a strategic plan to expand its operational base outside of the North East region.
The report informed that there has been 10 reported attacks claimed by ISWAP; two each in Kogi and Niger, and one each in Abuja, Edo, Kaduna, Kano, Ondo, and the Taraba States.
Further breakdown of the report shows that fatalities rose by 0.2 percent from 859 percent recorded in August, but abductions dropped by 0.3 percent, while violent attacks decreased by 11.9 percent from 599 incidents recorded in August.
A breakdown of these incidents shows 61.7 percent occurred in the North East geopolitical region (531 fatalities), 8.4 percent occurred in the North Central geopolitical region (72 fatalities), 20.1 percent in North West (173 gatalities), South West 2.6 percent (fatalities 22), South East 3.7 percent (32
fatalities) and South-South 3.6 percent (31 fatalities). 90.2 percent of the fatalities for September 2022 affected the northern half of Nigeria.
A further breakdown of these figures shows these states as having recorded the highest fatalities: Borno 163, Benue 90 and Kaduna 82, Niger 65 and Zamfara 42. Ondo State recorded the highest number of fatalities in the South West region at 55 persons killed in the monitored period while Ebonyi State had 28 Fatalities as the state with the highest from the South East region.
Other events that shaped Nigeria’s security in September according to the report includes: continuation of massive oil theft and the resignation of the Chairman of the Police Service Commission; controversy over the arming of state-level security structures; Social upheaval which was mostly triggered by the ongoing Academic Staff Union of Universities (ASUU) strike; Criminal activities in South-West Nigeria; Violence associated with political events and politicians in the preparations for the 2023 general elections.
Since January to September 2022, there has been 3990 violent attacks which has resulted in 8994 deaths and 4641 abductions.
In its outlook for the coming weeks, Beacon Consulting warn that killings, violent attacks and political violence will worsen. It said the dislodgement of gunmen from bases and camps due to the ongoing interdiction and clearance operations by the security forces will lead to further attacks against defenceless communities.
“Political violence localised to political events and gatherings will continue as preparations for the political party events ahead of the 2023 general elections take place. This is likely to increase following the commencement of the campaign activities,
The organisation further warned that criminal activities including kidnap for ransom, violent and petty crimes, as well as home invasions are likely to continue in the short and medium terms due to the deteriorating economic circumstances of the country and rising inflation.
“This is likely to be accentuated by the effect of the Russia – Ukraine war on commodities and the supply chain disruption it engendered, ” the report read..
“A continuation of non-state actors’ activities challenging the supremacy of the state’s monopoly of force and sustenance of their attacks on communities including kidnap for ransom and raids. In turn, this will push communities to evolve self-help initiatives, including protests, where they
block access routes and arm themselves.
“The deteriorating security situation will continue to fuel political rancour and the exchange between the ruling party and its members and between it and opposition parties; Social upheaval especially protests by civil society organisations and political groups hiding behind civil activists will intensify as a major driver of security challenges as the effect of the economic hardship forces the government at the Federal and State levels to take measures to manage these impacts,” the report read.
“The trend shows increasing criminal activities, especially in South West Nigeria and FCT Abuja; it is evolving and requires robust community-based prevention and law enforcement measures,” the report further warned.